Death in the skies, death from the skies.

Kampala- Ugandas participation on the Somalia mission has not been without controversy. From the outset, it has been classed as nothing more than an attempt by the present government to curry favor with the powers that be. While I have my issues with respect to solving the Somali problem, we are where we are and, the benefits to the UPDF in terms of broadening and deepening their skill set have been immense.

So it was with great fanfare that the air component was flagged off from Soroti flying school. Three attack helicopters and one utility helicopter were flagged off for Somalia. Monday brought with it the sad news that three of the four choppers were missing, pretty soon the worst was confirmed, they had gone down on or around the mountains outside Nanyuki Airbase.

At a personal level, the loss to the families cannot be comprehended, death comes to us all but this is a massive, massive blow. The skill set that has gone down with those men is also something that will be sorely missed. However, in the grand scheme of things skills and equipment can be replaced, it will take time but they will be replaced. 

The number one question on all our minds is what happened? by far the most cogent answer has come from Mike Mukula who argued the route chosen was less than ideal in fact the route chosen was a disaster in the making. Why? The service ceiling for the choppers in question is 4500M, at its highest point Mount Kenya is 5200M, basic maths tells you the rest.

Over and above the issue of the service ceiling, is the fact that flying through mountains is a challenge even for the most experienced pilots. At high altitudes engine performance suffers, thin mountain air affects the ability of most aircraft to gain and maintain altitude. It is not uncommon for older helicopters to stall in midair at high altitudes.

To compensate for this most fliers do one of two things. They derate the engines by this we mean the engines are tuned in such a way that they can operate optimally in suboptimal conditions.

Apart from derating the engines, some of them go ahead to tweak the power to weight ratios, by this we mean they use engines far more powerful in comparison to the weight they will be carrying. The net effect of these changes is, in the thin mountain air the helicopters are able to fly. 

What was the status of this equipment? Were the machines kitted out for high altitude flying?  What about the men? Were they prepared for the physical and physiological impact of high altitude flying?

The Chief of Land forces has gone on record to say the route chosen was reconnoitred in detail, I have no reason to believe he is lying, but as any soldier will tell you, more often than not, there is a huge difference between our assumptions and plans and the reality on the ground. The cost the institution has paid in blood and equipment is pretty high, our only prayer is that the lessons learnt, any lessons learnt will be put to good use.

 

Afrika Mashariki the 411

Kampala-  It has been a bit since I last wrote, I traded in one capitalist jockey for another and this one has me running on cylinders, well as many cylinders as a horse could possibly have. In the time I have not been writing much has happened.

Al Shabab is having its clock cleaned in Somalia. Joseph Kabila is doing a hapless impression of being the president of all of DRC. Still on the DRC, the army has had its butt kicked by some chaps with a name that paints a mental image of a street gang not a revolutionary army. 

In Kenya some chap called Miguna Miguna ( this guys parents are wierd) kicked off something of a shit storm by giving his two cents worth on the political elite. The bazinga (thanks Sheldon) is the William Ruto is a man worthy of being president and Mwai Kibaki inspite of his advanced age is something of a crocodile. Patient in the extreme and unlielding in his negotiations, I guess the grandfather image thing is just to lull his opponents into a false sense of safety. And yes you guessed it Raila is a political clown who has a thing against note takers......go figure.

Closer to home the hits just keep on coming for the government. The vicious one-two combinations have the ruling party reeling as they lose one by election after the other. Then, clearly we have over paid for national ID cards and by over paid I am just being silly, these German chaps and their Ugandan cohorts have mugged us economically four hundred IDs produced at a cost of 100M Dollars. The good times keep on coming, for our economic stick up men at least. 

Thats the 411 on Africa Mashariki,  SSDC Same Script Different Cast or as my 'French' speaking friends would say Same Shit Different Day SSDD.  I have to run now, the jockey calls.........

Bashir and Kiir, Once more into the breach.

Does every Sudanese peace treaty have within it the seeds of future conflict? Looking at the analysis of the  events in Sudan right now, the talking heads seem to believe the incomplete nature of the Comprehensive Peace Accord of  2005  is the cause of the present conflagration .http://www.cfr.org/africa/defuse-sudan-conflict/p28072

I disagree, firstly for grammatical reasons. I am not sure how comprehensive and incomplete can be used to refer to the same object. But more to the point,  this war serves as cathartic release for both presidents who are faced with daunting social and economic problems. War in this case is a distraction, a side show an  attempt to externalize the enemy.

The last time a Sudanese President found himself caught between the pincers of societal change and a woeful economic situation, he set Sudan on the path to war. That president was Jaffar Nimeiry and the year was 1984. A drought had decimated the food producing regions, the Arab world was riding a wave of piety and there was very little he could do to dam the tide.

So, he gave in to the Islamists and Sharia law became the governing  law over Sudan. He did put in some caveats with respect to the south but the arrow of rebellion had been loosed. The rest as they say is history.   A young Colonel called John Garang was sent to put down a mutiny and somewhere along the way he decided it was easier to fight a long civil war than put down a mutiny.

The point of the foregoing is not to be fillip about things, but to bring to the fore the fact that war with the south has been the one thing the northern Arab Islamist elite have agreed upon.  

Bashir and Nimeiry share similar circumstances,  Sudan has not been immune to the winds of the Arab spring, with its dual heritage, not quite Arab not quite African and yet fully human, the aspirations of the human heart for a more egalitarian society cannot be stilled. Egypt, Tunisia and indeed Libya  have shown the weakness of a system kept in power by force and patronage in the face of people power. Sudan's Bashir  is on increasingly shaky ground.

In Africa, the key use of government revenue is oiling the patronage system. For Bashir's Sudan, the loss of oil revenue which accounted for as much as 75% of government revenue has had the net effect of opening up the schisms within the National Congress Party (NCP). With much less money to go around the internal jockeying for position has intensified.

Quite apart from oiling the system, a small portion of government revenue goes toward the basic functions of government. In most African states government consumption is a large part of the economy, with reduced government expenditure and consumption  the knock on effects across the economy cannot be ignored. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTSUDAN/Resources/Sudan_Economic_Brief-Dec_2011.pdf

Closer to home. Salva Kiir is probably feeling the post secession post independence strain. In his book Anthills of the Savannah Chinua Achebe captured the angst of post independence leaders. That moment in time when the enormity of the task at hand and the paucity of their skill set meet with a resounding clash.

The post Independence euphoria is like an opiate slowly wearing  off, being replaced by the pain of a non existent state infrastructure expected to deliver without the benefit of a learning curve. No roads, no schools, no hospitals, no civil service and the weight of the aspirations of nine million people. It must be hot under that signature stetson.

Bashir and Kiir find themselves strangely united in the need for war, the one thing they were both fairly good at. War serves as a diversion, it allows both sides a common external enemy they can both focus on, blame and harangue for their failures.

Enter Uganda the regional enforcer, the Kony bogeyman serves Juba more than it serves Khartoum. Why would Bashir provide a rallying point for Juba and Kampala? The different messages being sent out by the Chief of Defense forces and the Minister of Defense in the issue of Sudan may be seen as Uganda hedging its bets, I say stay out of the game altogether. This fray will have no winners, this fray will be long and drawn out because neither party has what it takes to deliver a killing blow.

As a country we have no vital interests to protect, at least none that can be protected through the deployment of forces in Sudan. Our best bet is do what we can to make sure Southern Sudan survives as a state, short of committing blood and boots.

Kony is already Famous

Kampala Uganda- A few days ago I was having a conversation with Gari a friend of mine. As we talked she brought up the Kony 2012 video and asked me what my thoughts were. Off the bat, I said, I did not think an internet video was going to do anything.

http://www.kony2012.com/
To the best of my knowledge, Kony lives in a jungle somewhere in Congo at the rate at which the UPDF has been capturing his Kaunda suits he must be down to the dresses that also form part of his wardrobe.  There are many problems with the Kony 2012 video, and, far more qualified people than me have made their position on that very clear. However, the one thing I take issue with is how the video can take something as complex as the conflict in Northern Uganda and reduce it to bubble gum.http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/07/guest_post_joseph_kony_is_not_in_uganda_and_other_complicated_things

Furthermore to the people behind Invisible Children, who the hell do you think you are? From your video, it is clear you know next to nothing about the situation in Uganda in general and Northern Uganda in particular. The issue with Joseph Kony has roots far deeper than anything you have attempted to capture and this video is going to do next to nothing to solve.http://www.good.is/post/don-t-reduce-uganda-to-a-meme/

The Manichean prism of good versus evil completely ignores the fact that Kony is not an aberration. He is a product of a political system in which Socio political violence; even extreme violence is the norm. A hard core example of the Maoist maxim ‘political power grows out of the barrel of a gun’.

Why the focus on Kony? He is just one man. There are millions of people whose lives he has touched in the worst possible way, millions of people to whom he need not be introduced because he is already famous, who could use some help getting back on their feet.

Take one look at the people we are supposed to pressure to take action. There is not a single African leader not Kofi Annan, Nelson Mandela, Graca Machel, Desmond Tutu, Thabo Mbeki or Wole Soyinka. Not Wyre, Youssou Ndour, Angelique Kidjo or our very own Juliana Kanyomozi.

Somehow, Lady Gaga who thinks meat is clothing , Rush Limbaugh who believes/ believed LRA are a Christian outfit and the deployment of the US Special Forces advisers was an attempt by Obama to persecute Christians  are supposed to make a compelling case against  Kony.

That said, now with all the sound and fury around this video maybe we can have a real conversation about Uganda in particular and Africa

Black Gold

Kampala- On the twelfth February this year the president of Uganda gave a speech, a long speech about the state of play in Uganda’s nascent oil sector and his view of the state of play in Uganda in general. His announcement that he had instructed the energy minister to conclude the agreements with Tullow Oil had the talking heads moving at flank speed.http://www.chimpreports.com/index.php/special-reports/3924-m7-full-speech-on-oil.html

Parliament, under some dubious interpretation of their powers had placed a moratorium on agreements in the oil sector pending the passing of new oil laws. To the best of my knowledge the agreements were not negotiated in a legal vacuum, the guiding framework was the Petroleum act of 1985 and 2000 when they are referring to oil laws what exactly would they be referring to?

Parliament having more than its fair share of lawyers, and a disproportionately high number of senior six and senior six equivalency members should have known that you cannot shift goal posts, we as a county cannot retrospectively apply the law. Put differently, we cannot negotiate these same agreements under a new legal framework without exposing ourselves to more litigation than we could possibly afford to pay for both in financial terms and reputation terms.

As an individual, I put no stock in the parliamentary resolution because I am convinced beyond any doubt, reasonable or unreasonable, the documentation that informed the decision to freeze the agreement with Tullow was questionable. No, make that forged.

For anyone who seriously thought this deal would not go forward there may be a few things they missed.  First off, I would be hard pressed to believe that the person of the president would allow oil production to take off his stay in power. From the tone of this speech and other speeches one would be forgiven for believing this government created the oil and placed it in the Albertine graben. Never mind the fact that part of the legal framework used to negotiate these agreements predates their time in power.

 So, there is the element of one upsmanship, a competition some would say needless between this government and those that came before it. Throw in the messianic mindset of most of those who bleed yellow and it was a safe bet that this deal was going ahead.

The other issue is the Bashir factor and the Gadaffi factor. Omar El Bashir can thank the Chinese for his longevity in power, as long as the Chinese were dependent on ‘his’ oil they were prepared to provide him with political cover.  Gadaffi on the other hand had no significant godfather; he had forgotten that he was a bit player on the international scene. Having a few African countries and minor kings willing to drink your bathwater does not translate to juice on the international scene.

Love him or hate him, our president is a shrewd political operator, he can within reason count on the support of the Americans. The Europeans have been a problem but, Tullow is Anglo Irish so the Brits can be counted on to be less hostile and now he has two new best friends the Chinese (CNOOC) and the French (TOTAL). It cannot hurt to have four of the five permanent members of the Security Council looking at you through rose tinted lenses.

The wild card in all this is the fact that our president is a democrat. I am being serious he is a democrat. In the last elections the vast majority of Ugandans ceded their power to him for the duration of five years. His actions are in essence an expression of the will of the majority of Ugandans. His mindset can perhaps be best explained in the words of his fellow revolutionary and democrat Jacob Zuma who in a speech to the Judiciary in July 2011 said ‘The Executive, as elected officials, has the sole discretion to decide policies for Government. This means that once government has decided on the appropriate policies, the judiciary cannot, when striking down legislation or parts thereof on the basis of illegality, raise that as an opportunity to change the policies as determined by the Executive area of government.

http://constitutionallyspeaking.co.za/president-zuma-and-the-separation-of-powers/

He went on to say ‘The Executive must be allowed to conduct its administration and policy making work as freely as it possibly can. The powers conferred on the courts cannot be superior to the powers resulting from the political and consequently administrative mandate resulting from popular democratic elections. Political disputes resulting from the exercise of powers that have been constitutionally conferred on the ruling party through a popular vote must not be subverted, simply because those who disagree with the ruling party politically, and who cannot win the popular vote during elections, feel other arms of the State are avenues to help them co-govern the country. This interferes with the independence of the judiciary. Political battles must be fought on political platforms. http://constitutionallyspeaking.co.za/president-zumas-keynote-address-to-access-to-justice-conference/

Political battles must be fought on political platforms.

Why Operation Lighting Thunder Failed.

Kampala- On November 26^th  1977 White Rhodesia woke up to the news that on November 23^rd  at a quarter to eight in the morning, White Rhodesian security forces launched Operation Dingo, a combined air and ground attack against Robert Mugabe’s  Zimbabwe Africa National Liberation Army (ZANLA) camps at Chiomio and Tembue in Mozambique ninety kilometers away from the Zimbabwean border. Ten aircraft and two hundred ground troops were set against 10,000 ZANLA forces. (Rhodesian SAS Troopers Below)

White Rhodesian forces hit the camp with a wave of bombers, which were followed by helicopter gunships  before prepositioned ground troops drawn from the Rhodesian SAS and the Rhodesian Light Infantry finished off those who the planes and the gunships had not killed. When the dust and the smoke cleared, there were three thousand confirmed ZANLA dead and as many as five thousand wounded. Two days later, on November 25^th the smaller camp of Tembue was hit. After action reports indicated the body count could have been higher had there been more ground troops assigned to the mission.

In military terms, Operation Dingo is an example of perfect planning and flawless execution. In the planning and execution all nine principles of war, mass, clarity of objective, surprise, economy of force, maneuver, unity of command, security and simplicity were held to a tee and the results were clear. Rhodesian security forces deployed ninety kilometers outside Rhodesia killed three thousand combatants, losing two of their number and in the process putting the fear of God in ZANLA.

On December 14^th 2008 Ugandans woke up to the news that the regional governments Uganda, DR Congo and Southern Sudan had launched Operation Lightning Thunder to put paid to the Kony menace Unlike White Rhodesia three decades earlier Uganda was not celebrating success, it was full of questions.  By far the most disturbing picture was of a group of armed men standing before basins, jerry cans, plastic chairs and a guitar items which allegedly belonged to Joseph Kony. As a country we were hoping that the UPDF had finally killed or captured Kony as opposed to capturing his Kaunda suit.

Why did Uganda fail where Rhodesia succeeded? The key failure was a failure of mass. Where Rhodesian Security Forces were able to concentrate all their firepower on a single target at a specific time, UPDF applied force in a piece meal fashion. Operation Lightning Thunder failed because the UPDF did not apply firepower in a concentrated manner. The  fighter jets were not designed for ground attack and the helicopter assets were insufficient.

The ground combat element, a key component of the entire operation did not make their objective in time because they were slowed down by a combination of bad weather and difficult terrain. The challenges presented as reasons could have been reasonably been anticipated. At H-hour, what should have been a thunderous concentrated blow was an effort devoid of focus and thus potency. 

The failure to mass firepower has been blamed largely on the weather, the rain and the attendant fog and low lying clouds had delayed the aerial attack. General Tinyefuza in his impassioned article argued we had and still have no control over the weather.  He argues Uganda did not have a meteorology department in Garamba and neither did the DRC. With all due respect to the general that argument has no legs.http://www.independent.co.ug/cover-story/531-tinyefuza-tells-off-generals-on-garamba-attack

Granted, the attack was launched in what is the dry season for that part of Congo however, based on data available in the public domain, Garamba national park (see aerial picture below) receives 1260MM of rainfall annually. Uganda as a whole receives 1574 mm of rainfall annually. The argument I am making is, that it rained in Garamba that day, should not have come as a surprise to anyone. The attendant fog and low cloud cover that delayed the deployment of the fighter planes should have been factored into the operational plans.

A combination of the terrain and the weather also hampered the ground combat element. The average soldier can walk six kilometers per hour carrying full combat gear over relatively even ground. The terrain in Garamba is characterized by forest, swamp and or savannah covered by high elephant grass. Even without the rain, which turned the ground into a soggy, jellylike mess it would have been impossible for the ground combat element to reach their objective in time. (Ugandan troops in Congo below)

Still on the issue of the weather General Tinyefuza argues, First of all, it is not true that an army can have 100 per cent certainty on weather conditions even when they use meteorologists. You can see how Israel today is facing problems in bombing Gaza because of unforeseen weather conditions. During the Gulf War in 1991, US forces had to suspend bombing for seven days until weather conditions improved. Besides, Uganda could not have had a meteorology department in Garamba. DRC does not have one either. But when Plan A could not work, we employed Plan B. That is why we had contingency plans to substitute MiGs with helicopter gunships in the initial assault on Garamba. (A road in Democratic Republic Congo below)

First off, MIG -21 fishbed planes were designed as fighters, which is they went head to head against other planes and interceptors, which is they went head to head against bombers.  The other way of putting this is they were not specifically designed to destroy targets on the ground. The then Soviet Union had used them with limited success in Afghanistan in the 70’s and 80’s which in part led to the design of the SU-25 frogfoot (see picture) a pure ground attack plane. The limitation of the MIGs was immediately apparent; with a high operating ceiling somewhere in the region of 2000m they were not very useful because fog and low lying clouds limited their operational capabilities.  Furthermore in a ground attack role, MIG-21 planes carry 1.5 tons of ordnance, compare that with the SU-25 which carries 5 tons of ordnance.  The MIG-21 was not the best weapon system for a ground attack mission.

Attack helicopters or gunships are a valuable asset, Uganda’s principle gunship is the MI-24 Hind, and it is an impressive weapon by all accounts. However, according to the Military Balance a publication by the prestigious International Institute for Strategic Studies, Uganda has six gunships with only two (2) being functional. The other four are part of the flawed procurement process (junk chopper scandal).

This begs the question, even with its impressive capabilities how would two gunships deliver the firepower necessary to destroy the three camps lighting thunder was targeting? It may be argued that the other helicopter assets such as the MI-8 hip can be fitted for fire support missions but their pay load which affects the amount of firepower they can bring to bear is limited because they are primarily troop carriers.

We are familiar with the well-worn cliché the best coaches and players are always in the stands and that is why I have limited my critique to facts and information that was available at the time the operation was launched. A failure to bring all the firepower to bear at H-hour meant the UPDF was simply not in a position to hammer Kony decisively. 

Operation Lightning Thunder.

Kampala - It was meant to be our finest hour, a lightning fast air raid followed by a thunderous blow from elements of the Special Forces. A Uganda Peoples Defense forces (UPDF) air-ground taskforce equipped with fighter planes, attack helicopters and elite forces, poised to deliver a telling blow to the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) a rebel force equipped with nothing more than assault rifles, razor sharp machetes and a potent ideological mix of traditional religion and an insane reinterpretation of the Bible and the Ten Commandments.

The LRA has proved to be resilient, while several armed groups have come and gone, the LRA has persisted. Carefully reading the geopolitical signs, it has survived by remaining relevant to one destabilizing agenda after another. And, in that time has built a gruesome reputation founded on kidnap, the venerable AK- 47 assault rifle and razor sharp machetes.   

The protagonists were thus not unfamiliar with each other, having been locked in a macabre embrace for more than two decades.

Zero hour

December 14^th 2008, in a tent somewhere in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Operation Lighting Thunder planning staff are only mildly anxious as they pore over maps of North Eastern Congo. Outside; mechanics obsessively check the planes and the helicopters.

Men from the newly formed Special Forces Group in full battle gear stand  in groups checking and rechecking their rifles. The air is tense. They will be inserted into battle by helicopters, they are the lucky ones, somewhere in the vastness beyond several companies of men, the blocking force, are walking to the objective.

The weather has cast a deciding vote, it has been raining and there is thick fog, the Mig- 21 planes, the crucial first wave cannot deploy. In the tent, there is whispered talk about how the weather slowed down Operation Overlord the allied invasion of Europe and it turned out to be a success and how the air campaign in Gulf War One had been halted for a whole seven days because of bad weather.

The  mission commander asks his signaler to reach out to the blocking force, the report is not good, the rain has turned the ground into a gelatinous mess, they may not make the objective in time. The clock winds down.

The window of opportunity is slowly closing; mission command reaches out to the blocking force again what is their status. Progress is still slow they will not make the objective in time.

The meteorologist comes in, there is good news, the weather has cleared enough for the fighter’s to be launched. The mission commander calls a meeting attendees are the air wing commander, the ground forces commander, the operation intelligence officer and lays the options on the table; the ground component will not be in place in time. The weather has cleared enough for them to launch the fighters, the new plan is air assets only. 

Without the ground troops there is a real chance Kony will escape into the vastness of Garamba. An attack from the air will deprive him of food and shelter and may kill off some of his forces. Furthermore there is no telling what vindictive, retributive wrath he will unleash upon the people of north eastern Congo. Will this constitute victory?

There is silence around the table, each of these men know this is not only about killing Kony, it is one the most important auditions in their lives, it is about proving the post- Luwero generation of officers and men have what it takes. It is also about proving that the new bi service model of the UPDF can work.

After Action report.

A lot has been written about that day December 14 2008, the mission failed in its cardinal aim killing Joseph Kony and yet it was a success in the sense that it showed all and sundry that Uganda has evolving capabilities, there is no such thing as a safe haven.

Why talk about this operation three year after the fact? In 2008 the Americans offered technical and financial support, in 2011 they have offered boots on the ground, the Chinese have offered money some would say a violation of their long held tenet of non-interference and the Europeans have offered to build a base.

In 2011 the battle to end the Kony menace is a microcosm of the much wider battle between the US and China and to some extent the EU for what has been called the Post-American Era. In the second part of this is three part piece I will highlight the key failures of the initial strike in December 2008, and lastly I will address the current context in which we find ourselves. 

The End of the American Era

A lot has been said about the future direction of the world. A lot has been asked about the nature  and the structure of the Post-American world. This article makes great reading.
The End of the American Era | The National Interest

Rush Limbaugh on Lord's Resistance Army: "Obama Invades Uganda, Targets Christians" | FP Passport

Rush Limbaugh on Lord's Resistance Army: "Obama Invades Uganda, Targets Christians" | FP Passport

The god that failed and thirteen million reasons to lie.

Kampala- The Daily Monitor Uganda’s leading broadsheet today carried stunning news, the Catholic Church had come out and admitted the famous Uganda martyrs were not killed for their beliefs. It admitted that the alleged martyrs were actually spies in the pay of the French intelligence service; they had been tasked with undermining the government of Kabaka Muwanga. 

Furthermore, the church acknowledged that the Martyrs were not heroes for the faith as had been previously portrayed; they were agents serving a temporal rather than spiritual power who had reached the end of the line. The decision to portray them as heroes of the heavenly kingdom rather than the earthly kingdom they served was taken at the highest level in a last ditch effort to gain some political capital from the deaths and put a positive spin on what was in essence a catastrophic failure.

The Catholic population in Uganda has been stunned by the revelation; many of them have been seen wandering listlessly at the Martyrs shrine. The family of Mukajjanga, Mwangas chief executioner feel vindicated by the revelation that their forefather was in fact responsible not for the deaths of men of God but of garden variety traitors.

Further afield, in neighboring Kenya a group of men who have made the yearly pilgrimage to Namugongo on June 3^rd every year since 1981 were found hanging in a forest in western Kenya. The suicide notes found at the scene indicated the men were despondent about the revelations and had lost complete faith in the Church and that is the reason they had decided to end it all.

The aforementioned did not actually happen, but something in the same order of magnitude did. The revelation that the National Resistance Movement and its armed wing the National Resistance Army (NRM/A) revolution is in fact not unique in the annals of history; sadly, it is a common, garden variety revolution. The NRM/A which has ruled Uganda since January 1986 shot its way into power and with some messianic zeal proclaimed it had ushered in a fundamental change in Uganda's political life. 

This revelation that there is in fact very little unique about NRM/A  pivots around the story that Uganda had paid Burundi 32 billion Uganda shillings(Thirteen million dollars)  to settle a debt acquired when the present government was nothing more than a rebel outfit. Now, the fact that most of the money seems to have been pilfered by some corrupt officials’ in the ministry of finance is not shocking.  The meaty stuff in this is the official acknowledgement that the NRA/M was in fact the beneficiary of considerable external support to the tune of thirteen million dollars. Thirteen million dollars now is plenty of money, thirteen million dollars three decades ago is a veritable fortune.

The NRM/A has been at pains to portray their revolution as something unique. The official narrative has tended to focus on the brevity of the war, it lasted only five years, it has also tended to focus on the ‘fact’ that they had no external support. Theirs was a popular movement nurtured and nourished by the ambitions of the common man even when many of the rebel movements in that time period relied heavily on whichever side of the cold war divide was willing to provide arms. 

Furthermore, even when the Torah of the revolution ‘Sowing the Mustard Seed’ acknowledges foreign support in the form of a Libyan Arms drop, the author is at pains to explain that the arms drop was not a game changer in anyway. The official narrative has emphasized the ‘fact’ that the largest supplier of arms to the rebel movement was in fact the then national army in the form of arms captured in battle. In fact, nowhere in the official narrative of the events of the struggle is any mention of Burundi’s contribution made.

The NRM/A has been brutal when it comes to any narrative that challenges the official truth, which is what  makes this revelation particularly stunning, the source, it is hard to argue with the official version of events now. In an article years ago Charles Onyango Obbo argued that as long as so much of Uganda’s history remained contested it would carry within it the seeds of future justification for political violence in one form or another. Maybe just maybe now is the time to separate facts from fiction and change the tide of the future.  

Tullow, CNOOC, Total and The Local Content Dilemma.

Kampala. In my post yesterday, the case I made that Ugandan companies would not benefit immediately from the commercial exploitation of oil has been challenged. It has been suggested in private responses to my post that there would be no benefits, irrespective of the time frame and that in fact I was blowing smoke.

First off, I will repeat this here because it bears repeating, the benefits will come, most of them in the long run,  all of them as a result of local companies either through partnerships with international players or on their own initiative ensuring they meet the highest standards be they health and safety, be they accounting standards. The point here is simple; doing business with local companies must not carry with it a liability that extends far beyond any commercial gains. The other side of this argument is, local companies should not expect to benefit simply because they are local companies.

The interconnected nature of international business and the increasing demands being placed on large multinational companies with extended supply chains can best be illustrated by the following story. In 2010, Domini a US based investment firm reached an agreement with Nucor, the largest steel producer in the United States in which the Nucor committed to regular monitoring of its suppliers to ensure that none of its suppliers used slave labor in the process of making pig iron a key component in the manufacture of steel.http://www.ilo.org/sapfl/News/lang--en/WCMS_143438/index.htm

This agreement was brought on by an investigation by Bloomberg Business week Magazine that revealed the use of slave labor in the manufacture of charcoal, a key component in the manufacture of pig iron. The pig iron was sold to Nucor which in turn sold it to car manufactures.  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4j1VKZq34TM.

The interest that this issue generated also forced the car manufactures Ford, General Motors, to commit to ensuring they would not source products from vendors who have questionable business practices. The actions of one, maybe more individuals in Brazil had affected decisions in the corporate boardrooms of blue chip companies in New York, and Detroit.
 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arPjegyeQ7ik

The foregoing is an illustration of how interconnected the world has become, how what in a past life may have been a local incident now has far reaching consequences. Nucor simply bought goods from its Brazilian suppliers, some may argue Nucor cannot be held responsible or punished for actions of a legal entity it does not control. That may have been true in the past, today that argument holds no water, multinational companies can no longer afford to slack off with respect to their choice of local partner, as the foregoing illustration shows; the costs of local noncompliance can be very steep commercially.

Bringing it home, while there may be a great deal of hoopla about Tullow and their choice of local partner, local businesses need to address themselves to the question of compliance standards across the board. Health and safety, labor, accounting, etc as a lapse in these areas could have deleterious effects on Tullow both commercially and in terms of reputation.   

Tullow, CNOOC, Total are duty bound to enforce their highest group standards with respect to vendors and local partners. They are also required to transfer as much skill and knowledge as they can to the local business community through. For local companies seeking to become regional and maybe even international players  they cannot expect a free ride,  it is important that compliance to the highest standard be they health and safety, be they accounting standards be seen as a requirement rather than an inconvenience. That is the new cost of doing business on the international scene.

Is Tullow Oil Really Bad for Uganda?

Kampala Uganda - Resource rich countries, the world over, with very few exceptions have all been touched by the resource curse. The resource curse for the uninitiated is simply a situation in which the natural resources and the income they generate in no way benefit the majority of the population. 

This ruthless exploitation is the result of amoral international companies, especially those in the mineral sector driven on by the ruthlessness search for market opportunities and profit. Furthermore, these mineral companies collude with local and international elite to malign the interests of the local people through corruption, weak laws and crony capitalism.

No other resource has cursed more nations than oil, from its ability to alter the geopolitical balance in a region, its ability to allow the ruling elite to live in a suspended bubble of luxury and unaccountability over the masses, to its effect on the local and international environment; the oil industry is a relatively easy target for a motley crew of individuals.

However, the resource curse does not occur in isolation; a key facilitator of this curse is an environment of deliberately enfeebled institutions, a political environment in which institutions have no sway over individuals, and an environment in which the office confers no authority. Based on the foregoing, Uganda is a prime candidate for the resource curse and Tullow is being painted as the vessel through which this curse is going to be delivered.

If you are inclined to believe everything you read in the newspapers, then Tullow Oil is the worst thing that has happened to Uganda. The newspapers in the past couple of weeks have painted Tullow as corrupt, the famous or is it infamous bribery scandal. In this way they are perpetuating an inherently unfair political system.

Then they are non-compliant in the manner in which they have let their exploration licenses lapse. On the flipside this can be seen as an attempt by Tullow to take advantage of weak oil laws in Uganda. These weak oil laws further allow the political elite to profit at the expense of the greater masses.

As if that is not bad enough, they have no real interest in developing local talent or local enterprises, the vast majority of the executive positions in this industry are filled by foreigners, and the primary contractors are foreign companies.  In this way, resources will be transferred abroad and there will be very few real benefits to the local economy.

In an earlier post I made the case that the bribery issue is a non-starter. With respect to local companies, that is a complicated issue, complicated in the sense that many of the local companies do not have the required skill set nor do they meet the demanding compliance standards required to be vendors. And no, the standards cannot be lowered; Tullow however is in the process of equipping local companies with the skill set and bringing them up to speed on the compliance front.

With respect to the question of the license, what license? Are we talking about the exploration license or the production license? Logically once Tullow discovered oil it would have applied for a production license, oil was discovered in 2009. According to the Petroleum Production and Exploration act of 1985 section 26 subsection one states A production license shall be granted for the period for which the application has been made but not for a period exceeding 25 years.

A production license is granted for 25 years, assuming the production license are granted at discovery then those licenses are still be valid. I could be wrong but then the article that suggested Tullow had lapsed was very nonspecific as to which license had lapsed.  And again, why would Tullows legal team apply for a one month license when conservative lift estimates put the oil well productivity at 25 years?

International Oil companies are easy targets; in Uganda the interests and personalities that drive politics over and above institutions have Tullow in their sights. Tullow is not the perfect international oil company; those ‘do not exist’. Based on the myriad of interests aimed at the international oil companies satisfying them would be a major miracle. Tullow however is not bad for Uganda; someone is working very hard to make us think so. 

Gadaffi, a not so Greek tragedy.

Kampala, Uganda-  Greek tragedy is something I admittedly have minimal knowledge of, however the one recurrent theme I have picked up in my spasmodic interaction with this form of literature is this, our paths to greatness can be undone by  the interaction between external circumstances and our character flaws.

In the days, weeks and months leading up to the death of Muammar Gadaffi of Libya I can’t help but wonder if his life and times would not have made a great Greek tragedy novel.  The protagonist, full of noble intentions who through a great deal of blood, sweat and tears undertakes Sisyphean labor until he is undone by a character flaw. His path to greatness is blocked by a character flaw and therein is the tragedy.

Like the Persian King Xerxes whose invasion of Greece was ultimately undone by his hubris, Gadaffi may have ultimately been undone by a messianic hubris that did not allow him to see that the ideas he espoused were less relevant in the world today.  A hubris that did not allow him to see that he had become politically isolated, his key allies being Sub Saharan African countries with limited political clout on the international scene. A hubris that did not allow him to see that he had become the very thing he loathed, a man in command of a pseudo monarchy not unlike the one he overthrew.

Like a modern day Okwonkwo the main protagonist in timeless classic Things Fall Apart, mercilessly driven by the demons of his past to the highest station in life, only to be held hostage by them. In the end coming undone by the same resolve that had served him so well in his rise to the top.

In the days leading up to and the days after the death of Gadaffi, the media has been inundated with literally hundreds of analyses all assigning the blame for the fall of Gadaffi to a single cause, oil. I believe without looking critically at the facts with respect to Gadaffi’s life and death the political class may lull themselves into a false sense of safety believing of they have no ‘strategic’ minerals, then they can run their countries as they see fit without fear of ‘imperialism’.

The Sad Bizarre End of a Revolutionary.

I make no bones about the fact that I think Gadaffi’s revolutionary credentials are suspect at best; I also disagree with the anti-imperialist argument because it  has very little resonance with my generation, I/we do not see the west and the ideas it espouses, key idea being a liberal, representative and accountable government as inherently hostile.

My second bone of contention with anti-imperialism is it completely relieves the leadership of any responsibility.  All our problems, all our failings can be and are blamed on external factors that we have no control over. No one asked Mobutu to sell out his country; he did it because it was the best way for him to keep power.

The last words on the life and times of Gadaffi have not been written but what if find most telling is this, in life he deposed a monarchy, a system built not on merit but on blood connections. Throughout his rule, the paths to the highest echelons of power were determined not by merit, but by blood and tribal affiliations to the ‘great leader’. His revolution can be seen as nothing more than a replacement of the Idriss monarchy with the Gadaffi monarchy. For the Libyan people, the rider changed, but they still remained donkeys to the vagaries of a single individual.

At the end of his life this ‘great revolutionary’, and ‘anti-imperialist’ he was defended not by his ‘national army’ but by a Special Forces unit.  Special in the sense that it was tasked with protecting the regime rather than the state, in this role it cannibalized and starved the wider army of valuable resources.

This unit was led by his son, staffed and manned by mercenaries and men from his tribe. The city in which he died was not the most cosmopolitan city in Libya, no, it was his birth place, choke full of fighters loyal not to the idea of Libya, but to him as a fellow kinsman.

The Irrelevance of the Oil argument.

Libya is blessed with forty billion barrels of oil, virtually all of it found in the desert making it easy and cheap to extract. Libyan oil is light sweet, low in sulphur, high in valuable distillates, and because of this Gadaffi was ousted because the west wanted access to his oil, yes his oil.

Let’s look at the facts; Libya’s national oil company has a whole host of relationships with western oil companies.  The EPSA’s negotiated by the national oil company grant access to these resources in some cases till 2047 so the issue of access to these resources is not supported by the evidence. http://www.eni.com/en_IT/eni-world/libya/eni-business/eni-business.shtml http://www.suncor.com/en/about/3986.aspxl.

While it is true that the terms imposed under these EPSA’s are some of the toughest across the Middle East, virtually all the companies accepted lower oil lifts for extended access to this oil. The lower lift matched against much longer access to the oil fields. Considering Libya’s field were practically virginal due to minimal exploitation, the terms negotiated under ESPA IV were reasonable. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wikileaks-files/libya-wikileaks/8294570/FRENCH-TOTAL-LED-CONSORTIUMS-ACCEPT-LOWER-PRODUCTION-SHARES-IN-LIBYA.html

Looking at this from another perspective, Oil contributes 95% of Libya’s export revenue; it also contributes 25% of the GDP and 80% of government revenue. With thirty percent youth unemployment, a heavy subsidy burden, a political system dependent upon patronage, Libya is a classic rentier state, completely dependent on oil; any designs which would affect this position would be political suicide.

Oil is a double edged weapon; it is in the interests if those who have it to do their very best to keep it affordable lest it be substituted. Adel al Jubeir former foreign policy advisor to the Saudi prince Abdullah and present Saudi Ambassador to the United States said of Saudi Arabia ‘We have almost thirty percent of the world’s oil. For us, the objective is to assure that oil remains and economically competitive source of energy. Oil prices that are too high reduce demand growth for oil and encourage the development of alternative sources of energy’. For oil rentier states the energy substitution effect would doom them to failure and political instability so anyone attempting to wield the oil weapon would have to have the dexterity of a bomb disposal expert lest it take him out too.

I come to Bury Gadaffi.

The manner of his death and the macabre display of his decomposing corpse are things I disagree with. Even though at a certain level I understand the desire to have a man who had so dominated life in Libya on display. I sympathize with those who called him father, grandfather, husband, uncle in the same breath my sympathies go out to all those who lost their lives as a result of his actions.

On a wider level Gadaffi’s death represents the end of an era, an era in which we as Africans live in pseudo monarchies dominated by the whims of a single individual. It represents the death of an era in which the political elite who run this continent can no longer sweep their failings under the rug that is imperialism and neocolonialism. For the elite, think long and hard about the lesson of Bouazzizi

Tullow Bribery Saga; Figures over facts, form over substance.

Preliminary musings.

There is an ancient Chinese curse that goes ‘May you live in interesting times’ Forget common usage of the term interesting, it can be translated to mean may trouble never leave your side. This week in Uganda, we lived out that statement, some people more than others.

This week opposition politicians dropped the equivalent of a daisy cutter.             http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BLU-82. The allegations that three cabinet ministers had been offered carrots to the tune of twenty three million Euros by Tullow the international oil company for vague services granted, in short a bribe. The media picked up on the figures and run with them, creating a blast wave in which many of us, me included forgot the basic adage, never make important decisions based on first information.

Two of the three ministers were specifically named, Sam Kuteesa Minister of Foreign Affairs and Hillary Onek former minister of Energy, the Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi was named in passing. Kuteesa and Mbabazi are lighting rods, revered and reviled in almost equal measure. Kuteesa has been censured for corruption in the past; against this backdrop it is easy to see how these accusations seem believable.

International oil companies have a torrid reputation with respect to corruption. Furthermore, by virtue of the fact they deal with the government in power it is easy to see how they can be seen as willing allies of the ruling system which makes them an easy target.

Into this mix add the opaque negotiation process associated with Uganda's oil contracts and you have the perfect storm for a political lynching.

I will admit I was dumbfounded by the figures, in economic times when most of us have tightened our belts to the point where they have cut us in half; it beggars belief that there are individuals who may have money we can only dream of in pot induced flights of fancy.

And therein lies the problem, I was so taken up by the figures, stunned into flights of fancy of what those funds could do I did not stop to think that there is a possibility that there is no substance to these allegations. What if these allegations were false? What if the people making these allegations could have discovered the fallacy of their documentation with minimal investigation?

In this week’s edition of The Independent Magazine I had a chance to see reproductions of these documents and the more I read, the less convinced I was that there was truth in all this.

The Power of Attorney Documentation.

Tullow Oil is a limited liability company listed on the London stock exchange. According to information available in the public domain, 26.5% of this company is privately held by different entities the rest is owned by investors through the stock exchange. http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=104. The compliance standards for listed companies are very high, it does not mean they are not and cannot be breached; however, the consequences are normally enough to give one pause.

The first glaring hole that I see, if you ignore the atrocious grammar, is the powers were granted to PAY cash. It would logically consistent assuming Mr. Heavey was indisposed, for him to grant powers to Mr. Glover to DRAW cash against a cheque or any other instrument.

Moreover, addressing this document to the bank is a redundancy. Banks are primarily interested in the persons who DRAW cash; in this case there is no indication as to whether or not Mr. Glover has the power to draw cash. A more relevant document from a banks perspective would have allowed Mr. Glover to DRAW cash which does not seem to be the case here.

Also, I find it very hard to believe that a listed company would on the strength of a letter signed by a single individual transfer power of attorney. Dual control and succession planning are basic tenets of corporate governance, is Mr. Glover, Mr. Heaveys’ designated successor in the event Mr. Heavey is indisposed?  Aidan Heavey may have founded Tullow but I would be hard pressed to believe that he would turn around and run it like a local mom and pop shop in down town Kampala.

Assuming the document in The Independent is accurate; I do not see how it could have passed legal muster. In my experience with such documentation, the drafting is very specific. It would have at the very least identified Brian Glover and specified the duration for which the document had potency.

The third aspect that I find very suspicious is the overt use of the names of Sam Kahamba Kuteesa and his date of birth.  Reading points one and two above in combination, Bank of Valletta had no relationship with East African Development Limited and by extension Sam Kahamba Kuteesa as such it is completely unnecessary for him to be identified to Bank of Valletta.

In addition, a date of birth does not serve to identify anyone, even with entities that have a much lower profile than Tullow the proper positive identification of an agent is never taken for granted.  In my view, the date of birth especially if it is used in combination with other official documentation like a passport or driver’s license number (Banks have a preference for nationally issued ID) would have made the documentation less suspicious.

Tullow Oil operates in one of the most limiting environments with respect to corruption and bribery, the UK Anti-Bribery Act 2010 is easily one of the toughest laws on the books anywhere http://www.cliffordchance.com/publicationviews/publications/2011/03/the_uk_bribery_act2010anendtomixin.html.

Aidan Heavey and the Tullow are aware of the game changing nature of this legislation and have been aware for at least a year. Why would he, assuming he was interested in corrupting the system leave breadcrumbs that could be directly linked to him? An in-depth look at the aforementioned analysis would give you pause or convince you that Tullow is being run by a bunch of mad men. This new law takes no hostages.

Funds Transfer in the Post 9/11 World.

Banking generally speaking is a web, a myriad of interconnected interests. International funds transfer is primarily done through a system called Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). There is no limit to the amount of funds that can be transferred though it follows, that certain funds attract far more attention than others. In the aftermath of 9/11 as part of the war against terror SWIFT has been cooperating with international intelligence agencies, handing over their transaction database for scrutiny. http://articles.technology.findlaw.com/2006/Jul/18/10162.html. I can categorically state it is impossible to wire ten thousand US dollars or its equivalent without it being flagged. The funds in question could not have been moved without there being an electronic trail.

Bank of Valletta it is the second largest financial institution in Malta with impressive financial figures, in short they are a credible institution with plenty to lose if they engaged in nefarious activity. What's more Bank of Valletta has been certified by the US government with respect to compliance with the relevant provisions of the PATRIOT act relating to foreign banks.

Suspicious transaction monitoring is considered business as usual in all banks, any funds received outside normal account activity would immediately be flagged and the beneficiary would have to provide documentary evidence to support the legitimacy of these funds. Funds of this magnitude would have triggered anti money laundering alarms before they were allowed into the banking system.

East African Development Limited supposedly operates an account with the Dubai branch of EFG Private Bank limited. http://www.efginternational.com/ Private bankers are inherently snobbish; it is an exclusive club where having plenty of money does not guarantee access. How would a company like EADL that has no bona fides get access into this elite world?

The final issue here would be screening system used by banks to deal with politically exposed persons. In banking parlance they are called PEPS and no relationship can be established with PEP unless it has been signed off by the country head in the case of international banks. Assuming Sam Kuteesa is indeed a shareholder in EADL, I doubt it would have been impossible to find any information related to him or this entity because higher than normal standards would have been applied.

If all other factors are excluded.

Sherlock Holmes famously stated, if all other possibilities are eliminated whatever remains however improbable must be the truth. I am unwilling, to convict Tullow on the basis of what the opposition politicians are calling evidence because it would call on me to believe that Sam Kuteesa is clinically insane. As is Aidan Heavey, Brian Glover and the evidence of that is as solid as the power of attorney document provided by the opposition.

So if this is not about the truth, then what is it about? There has been some speculation in the media that this is linked to the succession battles within the NRM, in some quarters it is seen as battle between those who actively fought the bush war and those who were part of the external wing. Some say it is about new NRM versus old NRM. That is beyond the scope of this piece.  I can say is the documentation provided does not meet even the lightest standards of proof. As a Ugandan I take exception politicians’ of any persuasion stirring up the hornets’ nest with allegations which hold no water and serve no purpose other than bad showmanship.

Riposte On Libya

I would like to thank those who have read and responded to my previous post on Libya. In some of the more colorful responses I have been called an apologist for the west, and something of a sell out (not in those exact words but the meaning was clear). 

In all this, I am reminded of a quote that is attributed to Julius Nyerere who when faced with increasing criticism of one of his fellow African leaders is supposed to have said ' I cannot take the sides against my fellow African' or words to that effect. True or not it sheds light on a mindset that is representative of many Africans even those not in positions of leadership.

What is at the heart of this debate?

In the simplest terms, it is about what the citizens of any state can reasonably expect from their governments. Libya was by most standards, indeed looking at the latest  human development indicators, head and shoulders above the world. http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/LBY.html

The Libyan people were living lives that many African people can only dream about and that is in part the cause of this divide. I would aver that the Libyan people wanted more, much more from their government. While in Uganda, and indeed in most of Africa we may be happy with good schools and hospitals and roads, the Libyan people seemed to argue, what may be a fantasy in the rest of Africa, an inclusive and functional social system is the bare minimum they expect from their government.  

Put differently, does a society that has most of the social support systems most aspire to have the right to revolt against a system that has delivered on these systems? The answer depends on the aspirations of that society. In an earlier post, I alluded to the fact that a liberal political dispensation has become the accepted norm. In light of the demographic structure of Libya, representative and accountable governments, a respect for universal human rights, various freedoms are now considered normal. Gadaffi had clearly delivered on the social front, but the people he ruled over wanted a more open political system.

Gadaffi the revolutionary Pan- Africanist?

A lot has been said about Gadaffi  and his Pan African credentials. He is the prime mover of the United States of Africa idea, a rendition of a debate as old as most African states. It has also been said he wants to be the ruler of this new entity. Libya, until recently has been a key funder of the African Union picking up the tabs of many of Africa's smaller states. There is no doubt that he has made some positive contributions to the African unity project. However there are some nations that look upon Gadaffi's Pan- African credentials and frown.

A key beneficiary of Gadaffi revolutionary zeal was Charles Taylor. The carnage sown by Mr Taylor through out western Africa with the blessing, funding and training of Gadaffi and his security apparatus is almost biblical. Caveat, Liberia had its own internal tensions mainly along the lines of dividing the political spoils between the native Liberians and the descendants of freed slaves who dominated the Liberian  political system, however it was the emergence of Samuel Doe that served as a catalyst for Libya's involvement.

When Doe violently assumed power, he made two decisions that angered Libya, a firm alliance with the United States and a reestablishment of formal diplomatic ties with the state of Israel. It was these decisions, made well within his rights as the leader of the Liberian people which irked Gadaffi who saw himself as a bastion of anti- Imperialism used interchangeably with anti-Americanism and anti-Zionism.

Capitalizing on this, Taylor and Forday Sankoh of Sierra Leone with training and funding from Libya unleashed Hades hounds on west Africa. As a point of his defense, Charles Taylor argued that Gadaffi was at least partly responsible for some of the crimes committed by his men and went on to suggest Gadaffi should be his co-accused.http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/charles-taylor-defense-gadhafi-trial-war-crimes/story?id=13094284 for a Sierra Leonian perspective please see http://www.shout-africa.com/top-story/libya-indict-muammar-gaddafi-now-for-war-crimes-in-sierra-leone/

Whatever Gadaffi's credentials he bears some personal responsibility for some serious crimes against the people of Africa in general and Liberians and Sierra Leonians in particular. His pernicious influence is also felt in Darfur and Chad, and his treatment of the Berber minority within his country.

Bringing it together.

I have never made any secret of  the fact that I supported the decision to oust Gadaffi for the reasons I have stated above and in other places. I am a firm believer in a liberal open and democratic society because I believe that it is the only system that contains within in sufficient safety valves to preclude the violence that serves as a mile marker on this continent.

That said, I believe the Libyan people are the final arbiters in this debate and their position  is,  thank you very much for the schools and the hospitals and the fine roads that the rest of Africa can only dream about, we as a people want state that best represents our aspirations. A genuinely representative state, not a quasi monarchy led by the King of African kings Muammar Gadaffi and his princes and princess.